Iran and stuff

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Aha, I remember the days when I posted often. I think I even made sense every now and then. It’s been tough to time to write something worthwhile. Oh, there’s lots going on but most of it is so depressing I often just don’t feel like commenting. But I’ll do my best to catch up today.

First off just as an FYI, I’ve started a Master’s of Science program in Management with an emphasis on IT/Project Management. I’ve already seen some late nights and time crunches. I suppose that just comes with the territory.

So to the news:

Iran:

There was never any doubt there would be a deal. This was decided long ago by the Administration. The only question was how good it was going to be for the Iranians. From the first look at the document, (http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/world/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/1651/) this is my take away.

Iran gets nearly all sanctions lifted. This is a great economic boost for them. Iran continues to be a leader in state sponsored terror and no doubt this will boost their contributions to their continued efforts. According to the International Business Times,

“The lifting of sanctions could allow Iran to recoup more than $100 billion in frozen oil profits. It would also reopen Iran’s ability to export oil to buyers worldwide and allow its banking system to do business with Europe. The nation’s economy could expand by 5 percent to 8 percent per year, Virginia Tech University Economics Professor Djavad Salehi-Isfahani told the Post.”

I wish our economy could expand like that.

We get promises that they are not interested in nuclear weapons production. Yet we know they continually lie about their nuclear program. In the agreement they get notice before any inspection and the right to challenge the inspections. This could take weeks and will give them plenty of time to hide any evidence.

The document is 151 pages long so I’m not going into details as most of it is just normal diplomatic fluff which has little meaning.

If Iran were trustworthy I’d have little issue with the deal. But they are not.

Foreign Policy Magazine notes:

Just before Labor Day weekend, the State and Treasury Departments sanctioned several individuals and organizations “providing support to illicit Iranian nuclear activities.”

These include illicit procurements for centrifuge enrichment and the heavy water reactor under construction at Arak. The administration recently detailed Iran’s ongoing illicit procurements in a report to a U.N. panel. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani boasted this summer, “Of course we bypass the sanctions, and we take pride in it.” Indeed, no one seems particularly concerned about ongoing violations of U.N. sanctions. After all, in July 2006, the Security Council demanded that Iran suspend all uranium enrichment-related activities, but eight years later, more than 9,000 centrifuges are still spinning at Natanz and Fordow.

The one possible silver lining, Oil price may drop due to Iran’s ability to sell oil and add millions of barrels of oil to the market. That’s not good for oil workers but gas prices might return to sane levels.

So do I think this was a good deal? I highly doubt it. I think the enforcement is pretty weak and will be side-stepped. I don’t know if this is just ego massaging or naiveté, but I don’t think this is going to end well.

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3 Responses to “Iran and stuff”

  1. anan Says:

    I think the deal is a good deal. And the reason why has been publicly alluded to by Iran’s unelected dictator . . . supreme leader Sayyed Khameni, may peace be upon him.

    Khamenei said that the deal aimed to turn the Iranian people against the regime.

    This deal in my view is a defeat for Khamenei. The deal is wildly popular among Iranians. It will likely boost the Iranian private sector and Iranian civil society . . . and the Iranian greens. It empowers Iranians who believe in good relations between Iran and the international community.

    Over time this will likely weaken Khamenei’s grip on power. Khamenei has ruled Iran for 26 years. He is old, bipolar and psychotic; with growing cognition and memory problems. Deeply illegitimate and unpopular among Quom’s and the global Shia clergy . . . brutally holding on to power with the IRGC Kuds force. Khamenei’s fall is coming.

    This deal is about setting the conditions for the post Khamenei order.

    According to Iraqi government sources, currently 30,000 Iranians are fighting ISIS inside Iraq . . . and the Iranians are losing. The Iranians have many more troops losing to ISIS inside Syria. Khamenei’s proxy Hezbollah is losing in Lebanon. (ISIS is gaining ground inside Lebanon.) Iran is terrified of ISIS and the Taliban gaining ground in Afghanistan. Iran is losing in Yemen.

    Iran can’t stand up to ISIS by itself. Iran desperately needs international (including specifically American) help to defeat ISIS. American leadership would also likely lead to more help against ISIS from Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India, China, Russia, Turkey, GCC. Arab League.

    I think this is a big part of the reason that Khamenei felt he had no choice but accept this deal.

    This is a deal between Iran and the entire international community, including the UN. If Iran breaks the deal, they will anger everyone. Including countries that care a lot more than Obama does about preventing an Iranian nuclear weapons.

  2. JB Says:

    Anan, I hope your right and I’m wrong on this one.

  3. ymarsakar Says:

    That’s why I didn’t comment much on blogs after 2007, JB. There were various other things in this world that had a healthier effect on the mind and body, including some foreign arts and cultures.

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