Richard at The Belmont Club has a very good piece up today. Here is a bit. Go to his site and read the whole thing.
It is not hard to surmise that Pakistan secretly supported the Taliban long enough to keep Obama from outright winning his centerpiece military action. That also had the desired effect of requiring the US to keep enough forces on the ground to effectively keep them logistical hostages. Rarely has an act of such treachery been performed with such effectiveness and aplomb. No greater service for the Jihad can have been performed with such great effect than by the ISI.
What happens now depends on whether the Pakistanis have correctly judged their man. If they have misjudged him then even now President Obama will be preparing to pivot from Afghanistan to Pakistan. It may be politically expensive for Obama to admit he had been suckered into a strategic trap. Nor is it clear that hostile Republicans or liberal Democrats will support an even potentially larger conflict in Southwest Asia, at least not until after 2012. But he may try it. It will require determination and decisiveness. To fake a withdrawal from Afghanistan simply would not work; it would mean the abandonment of local allies, hard won bases and dismantling infrastructure that would be traumatic and irrevocable. Another man might say, “I shall return”. But that was in another century, in another world.
Aha what to do, what to do….